Calculator methodology
The calculator is an educational scenario model. It does not predict Bitcoin's price or determine whether a person can safely retire.
If the assumptions occur, the model shows the resulting path. A favorable result does not establish that those assumptions are likely.
Core projection
The model converts the starting balance into Bitcoin at the entered starting price, applies the user-entered annual growth rate, adds optional contributions, and calculates the portfolio value each year. Inflation-adjusted values divide future dollars by the compounded inflation assumption.
Borrowing model
The borrowing scenario applies the selected loan-to-value percentage to each year's projected portfolio. It accounts for interest on prior debt, user-entered fees, and the user-entered effective tax assumption. Actual loan terms may include margin calls, variable rates, custody requirements, refinancing limits, and liquidation rules that this simplified model cannot guarantee.
Taxes
Tax inputs are entered by the user. The model does not determine filing status, holding period, cost basis, state residency, deductions, or current tax brackets. Spending Bitcoin can also be a taxable disposition under U.S. rules.
Stress testing
Visitors should compare conservative, balanced, and aggressive assumptions and test immediate price declines. Sequence-of-returns risk can make early retirement losses more damaging than the same losses later.
Important limitations
- Bitcoin returns do not occur at a constant annual rate.
- Loan products and liquidation thresholds can change or disappear.
- Taxes depend on individual circumstances and changing law.
- Custody, counterparty, health, longevity, and spending shocks are not fully modeled.